I’ve been asked to expand the prospects list and throw in some of my own thoughts and reasoning behind the rankings, so that’s what I’m going to do. Keep in mind this is one person’s thoughts, as always, I could be wrong.
This group of prospects is what I’d loosely call C+ to D+ prospects, for whatever reasons. They have a chance to make it, and they can improve, but there are either significant flaws, or the boom/bust potential is extremely high, or their ceilings just aren’t that high. Whatever the case may be, that’s what I’d call this group as a whole. I’ll get to some individual thoughts over the next few days. Most of the prospects in this group could honestly go in any spot, it’s personal preference, and I’d hope you realize by now my preference is upside > floor.
31. OF Eudy Pina Pina had a good season on the surface, .233/.334/.396/.730 in the pitcher friendly confines of Grayson Stadium (.678 at home, .780 on the road). And he did alot well, 27 2b, 8 3b, 10 HR, 21/28 SBs. However, he did it at age 22, and will be 23 all of next season, so age is a little deterrent here. Still, I feel pretty good about his ranking here, there’s room for him to rise up the rankings, but right now, I feel his upside isn’t as high as others ahead of him, and he doesn’t have the floor of a Familia/Walters to justify ranking him in the teens-20s.
32. OF Ivan Wilson Ultimate case right here, Wilson is LOADED with upside, 4 to 5 tool potential, but his floor is basically used car salesman in 2 years. His upside is … really high, an above average regular, but, as with many extreme high upside prospects, that is balanced by the really low floor. Where do you rank someone like that? I’m not really sure, I stuck him in here, and then picked some safer, “surer” things below, which is how I treat this entire group. A mixture of upside and safety.
33. LHSP Darin Gorski Gorski is one of those “safe” picks in this group, he’s pretty likely to see some major league time, either this year or next year, but isn’t likely to blow your socks off, or anything remotely close to it. His upside is likely a 4th/5th starter, or more likely, a middle reliever. Keep in mind, as well, he had reverse platoon splits (.158/.228/.221/.448 against RHB, and .305/.387/.476/.863 against LHB) (so obviously Terry wouldn’t know how to use him, amirite?). Also keep in mind Gorski is a soft tossing lefty flyball pitcher who will likely be opening 2014 in the hitters haven of the PCL – a disasterous combination to put together (indeed, his 6.59 era in 13.2 innings this season in Vegas speak to that). Just keep that in mind when analyzing Gorski next season.
34. UTIL Eric Campbell Eric Campbell, to me, seems to be a very good candidate for the Mets bench, either on opening day, or at some point during 2014, he’s conquered the minor leagues, walked more times then he struck out, and put up a very strong triple slash (.314/.435/.475/.910) albeit in Las Vegas. Still 66 walks to 60 strikeouts in 341 ABs, AND 12/16 SBs, and the ability to play all 4 corners (1b, 3b, lf, rf) seems to make him a very good candidate for a bench role. However, there are those who feel his numbers were extremely inflated due to where he played, but to them, I say, look at his 2012 in Binghamton: .297/.391/.439/.830, 58/76 BB/K, 25 2b, 2 3b, 9 HR. He’s got a history of putting up stellar seasons.
35. 3B/LF Dustin Lawley Dustin Lawley is an intriguing case. A huge power bat (26 HR in 128 games this season, .513 SLG) but with no one position he can play (he bounced between 3b and LF this season, after playing some CF in 2011 and 2012), Lawley seems like another utility guy to me, with more of the power bat you’d want (compared to a Campbell, who would be the guy you want up there if you need to get on base). Lawley also bats righty, but the good news here is – he’s a year or so behind Campbell, he should be opening ’14 in Binghamton, and it will be very interesting to see where he plays. I would hope he gets extensive time in CF, RF and 1b, to prepare him for his eventual role as a super utility guy inm the majors.
36. SS Wilfredo Tovar Tovar simply doesn’t have the offensive upside (or preceived upside, as the case may be) of Gavin Cecchini to consider ranking him up in the mid 20s, but what Tovar does have, reportedly, is a VERY slick, very good, vastly above average, glove. It was on display during the final two weeks of the major league season following Ruben Tejada’s injury, and it was every bit as good as advertised. Still, with a .663 OPS in Binghamton, it’s hard to see, at the moment, Tovar becoming a starting caliber shortstop. Still, he did hit a very respectable .283/.345/.404/.749 over the final 2 months in AA, so with some carryover from that… there does exist a possibility he could surprise. Either way, I’m hoping he repeats AA, at least to start ’14.
37. LHRP Jack Leathersich Most people probably have Leathersich much, much, much higher than this on their lists. The lone reason I do not is his command, or lack thereof. Leathersich walked a batter per inning during his 29 innings in AAA, which is insanely high, and even with that, his AAA FIP was a remarkable 3.98, granted, it came with a ludacris 14.4 k/9. Doing some simple math, IF he managed to drop his BB/9 in half, and his k/9 dropped to 11, with all else remaining equal his FIP would’ve been 3.20. So you can see, the potential for a very good reliever is here, his control just needs to improve markedly, hence the low ranking. There is massive upside here, though.
38. RHSP Logan Taylor Acquired in the 11th round of the 2012 draft, Taylor would rank much higher on this list, were it not for a pair of injuries which limited him to 7 starts and 30 innings this season, including TJS which will sideline him for the bulk of 2014, as well. When healthy, Taylor features a fastball in the low 90s touching 94ish, and a 12-6 curveball. He was having a very good season before TJS hit (1-1, 2.67 era, 7 GS, 30.1 ip, 28 h, 9/35 bb/k).
39. RHSP Logan Verrett Verrett had a pretty meh season as a 22/23 year old in AA, putting up a 4.25 era/3.79 FIP, but with a very solid 31/132 BB/K in 146 innings. Alot of people (including me) feel his future is as a middle reliever, which is why he’s ranked so low on this list. I think alot of people know two things about me 1) I don’t like ranking relievers high on prospect lists unless they have huge upside, and 2) I LOVE upside. Soft tossing college RHPs don’t do it for me. Still, Verrett’s got a decent floor as a strike throwing 7th inning guy, if the whole starting thing doesn’t work out for him long term.
40. RHSP Matt Bowman Bowman had a great season, which unfortunately doesn’t totally shine through in the stats due to a very bad 3 start stretch at the end (14.2 ip, 19 h, 12 er, 8/12 bb/k). Factoring those 3 starts out, his season numbers would be: 112.1 ip, 92 h, 33/31 r/er, 7 hr, 27/104 bb/k. Bowman’s upside is likely a back of the rotation starter, or a middle reliever. Bowman has strong command and 3 average or better pitches, and should, if all goes well, spend some time in Vegas next season.
41. SS Phillip Evans I’ve said before, and I still feel this way, that Cecchini and Evans are basically equal (in my eyes) as prospects. However, people much much smarter then me must see something in Cecchini because he’s still getting some good press, so I’m basically succumbing to those reports and such not when I rank them where I have (Cecchini is 26th on my list). Either way, Evans put together a solid 6 week stretch from 6/11 to 7/26 where he hit .330/.392/.440/.832 with a 7/11 BB/K in 91 ABs. There’s still some question as to whether Evans can stick at short, or if he’ll need to move to second base.
42. 2b LJ Mazzilli Mazzilli is, of course, the son of famous 86 Met Lee Mazzilli, and had a very good debut season before a late season slump brought his season’s line down. Mazzilli was drafted as a senior, and as such, will be playing all of 2014 as a 23 year old, hopefully in the FSL opposite Phil Evans’ SS. Being a low upside college senior limited to 2b is what got Mazz ranked so low on my list, and I don’t foresee him doing too much to make me look bad here. His upside is probably Daniel Murphy, which is super useful (especially for cheap), but not a star by any means. However, in a market where 33 year old Omar Infante just got 4/30 off a 3 WAR season… Murphy in his prime coming off a 3 WAR season is immensely valuable.
43. 3b/1b Pedro Perez The Mets are reportedly very impressed with this 18 year old’s maturity in handling his struggles during the 2012 season in Kingsport. Perez is still extremely young, and could repeat KPT again for his age 19 season and still be on track from an age/level perspective. Aside from those things, not much is known about Perez.
44. 3b/1b Jhoan Urena Deep Sleeper Alert. Urena got lots of positive press this season (for a GCL player, anyway), and is a name to keep an eye on. He’s a long long way away, but that’s what the back of this list is all about. High upside, low floor lotto tickets.
45. RHSP Marcos Molina Alot of people think he’s next in the line of good stuff/great command prospects the Mets are pushing through right now (Montero, Ynoa). He’ll be 19 all of 2014, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him headlining Brooklyn’s rotation come the summer. Another deep sleeper/good upside play here.